Baseline characteristics
| Characteristic | AF progression (n=51) | No AF progression (n=366) | Total population (n=417) | P value |
| Age (years) | 64 (60–73) | 65 (58–71) | 65 (58–71) | 0.278 |
| Female sex | 15 (29%) | 164 (45%) | 179 (43%) | 0.049 |
| Total history AF (years) | 2.8 (0.9–4.9) | 2.6 (0.7–5.2) | 2.6 (0.7–5.1) | 0.803 |
| Heart failure | 20 (39%) | 104 (28%) | 124 (29%) | 0.274 |
| HFrEF | 4 (8%) | 6 (2%) | 10 (2%) | 0.025 |
| HFpEF | 16 (31%) | 98 (27%) | 114 (27%) | 1 |
| Hypertension | 46 (90%) | 292 (80%) | 338 (81%) | 0.086 |
| Diabetes mellitus | 5 (10%) | 29 (8%) | 34 (8%) | 0.59 |
| Coronary artery disease | 11 (22%) | 37 (10%) | 48 (12%) | 0.031 |
| Atherosclerosis* | 26 (51%) | 178 (49%) | 204 (49%) | 0.767 |
| Peripheral artery disease | 2 (4%) | 1 (0%) | 3 (1%) | 0.041 |
| Ischaemic stroke | 1 (2%) | 18 (5%) | 19 (5%) | 0.491 |
| Pacemaker | 9 (18%) | 16 (4%) | 25 (6%) | 0.001 |
| Number of comorbidities† | 3 (2–4) | 2 (2–3) | 2 (2–3) | 0.05 |
| CHA2DS2-VASc score‡ | 0.016 | |||
| <2 | 6 (12%) | 101 (28%) | 107 (26%) | |
| ≥2 | 45 (88%) | 265 (72%) | 310 (74%) | |
| Physical examination | ||||
| Height (cm) | 178 (170–185) | 177 (169–184) | 178 (169–184) | 0.492 |
| Weight (kg) | 88 (73–102) | 84 (74–96) | 85 (74–97) | 0.268 |
| Body mass index (kg/m2) | 27 (25–32) | 27 (24–30) | 27 (24–30) | 0.708 |
| Waist circumference (cm) | 105 (99–113) | 100 (92–108) | 100 (93–108) | 0.004 |
| Laboratory results | ||||
| eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) | 74 (67–86) | 81 (70–90) | 81 (69–90) | 0.016 |
| ECG | ||||
| PR interval | 178 (160–199) | 164 (149–184) | 166 (150–186) | 0.003 |
| QRS interval | 96 (90–106) | 94 (86–103) | 94 (88–104) | 0.191 |
| Medications | ||||
| β-Blocker | 32 (63%) | 181 (49%) | 213 (51%) | 0.099 |
| Verapamil/Diltiazem | 7 (14%) | 66 (18%) | 73 (18%) | 0.557 |
| Digoxin | 2 (4%) | 4 (1%) | 6 (1%) | 0.16 |
| Class I antiarrhythmic drugs | 5 (10%) | 89 (24%) | 94 (23%) | 0.02 |
| Class III antiarrhythmic drugs | 3 (6%) | 15 (4%) | 18 (4%) | 0.473 |
| ACE inhibitor | 11 (22%) | 71 (19%) | 82 (20%) | 0.709 |
| Angiotensin receptor blocker | 14 (27%) | 66 (18%) | 80 (19%) | 0.129 |
| Statin | 26 (51%) | 119 (33%) | 145 (35%) | 0.012 |
| Anticoagulant | 45 (88%) | 244 (67%) | 289 (69%) | 0.002 |
| Vitamin K antagonist | 10 (20%) | 45 (12%) | 55 (13%) | 0.182 |
| NOAC | 35 (69%) | 199 (54%) | 234 (56%) | 0.07 |
| Echocardiographic variables | ||||
| Left atrial volume index (mL/m2) | 34 (25–39) | 29 (23–36) | 29 (23–36) | 0.038 |
| Left atrial reservoir function (%) | 31 (26–39) | 37 (30–43) | 36 (29–43) | 0.045 |
| Left atrial contractile function (%) | 13 (11–17) | 17 (13–22) | 16 (13–21) | 0.003 |
| Left atrial conduction function (%) | 18 (14–25) | 19 (14–24) | 19 (14–24) | 0.965 |
| Left ventricular ejection fraction (%) | 50±8 | 51±8 | 51±8 | 0.893 |
| Left ventricle strain | −14.2±2.5 | −14.0±2.3 | −14.0±2.4 | 0.76 |
| Moderate aortic valve stenosis | 0 (%) | 3 (1%) | 3 (1%) | 1 |
| Moderate aortic valve regurgitation | 0 (%) | 0 (%) | 1 (0%) | 1 |
| Moderate mitral valve regurgitation | 3 (6%) | 4 (1%) | 7 (2%) | 0.045 |
| CT | ||||
| Calcium score (Agatston) | 131(5-492) | 25 (0–228) | 29 (0–275) | 0.004 |
| Pericardial fat | 186 (148–235) | 166 (121–231) | 168 (124–233) | 0.205 |
| Epicardial fat | 105 (77–130) | 98 (71–128) | 98 (72–128) | 0.349 |
| Vascular assessment | ||||
| IMT max-CCA >1 mm | 19 (46%) | 109 (34%) | 128 (35%) | 0.122 |
| IMT max-all segments >1 mm | 20 (49%) | 154 (48%) | 174 (48%) | 1 |
| Plaques | 15 (29%) | 125 (34%) | 140 (34%) | 0.407 |
Data are presented as mean±SD, number of patients (%) or median (IQR).
*Atherosclerosis is presence of history of myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass graft, ischaemic cerebral infarction, peripheral vascular disease, Agatston score >400 or plaque.
†The number of comorbidities was calculated by awarding points for hypertension, heart failure, age >65 years, diabetes mellitus; coronary artery disease, BMI >25 kg/m2, moderate or severe mitral valve regurgitation and kidney dysfunction (eGFR <60).
‡The CHA2DS2-VASc score assesses thromboembolic risk. C=congestive heart failure/LV dysfunction, H=hypertension; A2=age ≥75 years; D=diabetes mellitus; S2=stroke/transient ischaemic attack/systemic embolism; V=vascular disease; A=age 65–74 years; Sc=sex category (female sex).
AF, atrial fibrillation; BMI, body mass index; CCA, common carotid artery; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HFpEF, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; IMT, intima-media thickness; LV, left ventricular; NOAC, novel oral anticoagulation.