Table 3

Outcomes of 5820 severe and moderate patients on their 20th birthday, overall and by group characteristics

nTransfer to ACHD services
n (row %)
Death without transfer
n (row %)
Not transferred to ACHD services (alive)
n (row %)
Outcome censored before age 20
n (row %)
Estimated probability of transfer at age 20
% (95% CI)
All severe and moderate complexity58204747 (81.6)26 (0.4)611 (10.5)436 (7.5)84.7 (83.7 to 85.7)
Complexity
 Severe14541303 (89.6)12 (0.8)67 (4.6)72 (5.0)93.5 (92.1 to 94.9)
 Moderate43663444 (78.9)14 (0.3)545 (12.5)364 (8.3)81.7 (80.5 to 83.0)
Birth cohort
 Born between 1987/1988 and 1993/199419791685 (85.1)15 (0.8)279 (14.1)0 (0)85.8 (84.3 to 87.3)
 Born between 1995/1996 and 1999/200038413062 (79.7)11 (0.3)332 (8.6)436 (11.4)83.9 (82.5 to 85.2)
Sex
 Male33892799 (82.6)19 (0.6)338 (10.0)233 (6.9)85.7 (84.5 to 87.0)
 Female24311948 (80.1)7 (0.3)273 (11.2)203 (8.4)83.1 (81.5 to 84.7)
Ethnicity
 White48033975 (82.8)20 (0.4)463 (9.6)345 (7.2)85.9 (84.8 to 86.9)
 Non-white953731 (76.7)6 (0.6)130 (13.6)86 (9.0)79.9 (77.2 to 82.6)
 Missing6441 (64.1)0 (0)18 (28.1)5 (7.8)65.9 (53.8 to 77.9)
Area or residence deprivation
 Deprived area24961977 (79.2)11 (0.4)294 (11.8)214 (8.6)82.5 (80.9 to 84.1)
 Non-deprived area33242770 (83.3)15 (0.5)317 (9.5)222 (6.7)86.2 (85.0 to 87.5)
Model of care*
 Vertical model33682959 (87.9)10 (0.3)249 (7.4)150 (4.5)89.3 (88.2 to 90.4)
 Horizontal model24521788 (72.9)16 (0.7)362 (14.8)286 (11.7)78.3 (76.5 to 80.1)
  • The estimated probabilities (conditional probability function) of transfer are conditional on survival of patients and take into account the mortality and censoring of patients.

  • *Model of care: vertical if paediatric cardiac services and ACHD services are within the same hospital site; horizontal if paediatric services are in a dedicated children’s hospital with an affiliated ACHD service at a different hospital site. Details in online supplemental material.

  • ACHD, adult congenital heart disease.