Outcome | No. of events | Person-years | Incidence rate* | Before IPTW | IPTW | IPTW-adjusted† | |||
HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | ||||
All-cause mortality | |||||||||
HFpHF | 633 | 10 119 | 6.26 | 3.61 (3.15 to 4.14) | <0.001 | 1.90 (1.64 to 2.21) | <0.001 | 1.85 (1.59 to 2.15) | <0.001 |
HFmrHF | 189 | 2452 | 7.71 | 4.78 (3.99 to 5.73) | <0.001 | 2.66 (2.14 to 3.31) | <0.001 | 2.75 (2.22 to 3.42) | <0.001 |
HFrHF | 237 | 2674 | 8.86 | 5.29 (4.47 to 6.27) | <0.001 | 3.18 (2.58 to 3.93) | <0.001 | 3.18 (2.57 to 3.93) | <0.001 |
Non-HF | 311 | 19 802 | 1.57 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
Major adverse cardiovascular events | |||||||||
HFpHF | 946 | 7708 | 12.27 | 3.68 (3.31 to 4.11) | <0.001 | 2.48 (2.20 to 2.80) | <0.001 | 2.43 (2.16 to 2.73) | <0.001 |
HFmrHF | 243 | 1791 | 13.57 | 4.38 (3.76 to 5.10) | <0.001 | 3.11 (2.59 to 3.73) | <0.001 | 3.08 (2.57 to 3.69) | <0.001 |
HFrHF | 347 | 1836 | 18.90 | 5.81 (5.07 to 6.67) | <0.001 | 3.97 (3.32 to 4.74) | <0.001 | 3.83 (3.20 to 4.59) | <0.001 |
Non-HF | 510 | 18 476 | 2.76 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
Ischaemic stroke | |||||||||
HFpHF | 160 | 9742 | 1.64 | 1.38 (1.12 to 1.69) | 0.002 | 0.96 (0.77 to 1.21) | 0.751 | 0.97 (0.77 to 1.22) | 0.806 |
HFmrHF | 43 | 2347 | 1.83 | 1.59 (1.15 to 2.21) | 0.005 | 1.15 (0.79 to 1.69) | 0.459 | 1.21 (0.83 to 1.78) | 0.323 |
HFrHF | 48 | 2573 | 1.87 | 1.60 (1.17 to 2.19) | 0.003 | 1.06 (0.71 to 1.57) | 0.775 | 1.06 (0.72 to 1.58) | 0.766 |
Non-HF | 218 | 19 204 | 1.14 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
Myocardial infarction | |||||||||
HFpHF | 100 | 9927 | 1.01 | 2.31 (1.71 to 3.11) | <0.001 | 1.55 (1.11 to 2.14) | 0.009 | 1.53 (1.10 to 2.13) | 0.013 |
HFmrHF | 38 | 2345 | 1.62 | 4.01 (2.71 to 5.91) | <0.001 | 2.18 (1.32 to 3.59) | 0.002 | 2.09 (1.26 to 3.46) | 0.004 |
HFrHF | 73 | 2508 | 2.91 | 6.84 (4.96 to 9.44) | <0.001 | 3.64 (2.45 to 5.41) | <0.001 | 3.12 (2.08 to 4.69) | <0.001 |
Non-HF | 76 | 19 609 | 0.39 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
Hospitalisation for HF | |||||||||
HFpHF | 787 | 8100 | 9.72 | 5.52 (4.80 to 6.33) | <0.001 | 3.53 (3.02 to 4.12) | <0.001 | 3.44 (2.94 to 4.01) | <0.001 |
HFmrHF | 199 | 1928 | 10.32 | 6.44 (5.36 to 7.73) | <0.001 | 4.34 (3.49 to 5.39) | <0.001 | 4.31 (3.46 to 5.36) | <0.001 |
HFrHF | 280 | 1995 | 14.04 | 8.28 (7.00 to 9.78) | <0.001 | 5.72 (4.65 to 7.05) | <0.001 | 5.56 (4.48 to 6.90) | <0.001 |
Non-HF | 273 | 19 157 | 1.43 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
Estimated glomerular filtration rate decline >30% | |||||||||
HFpHF | 235 | 9558 | 2.46 | 2.46 (2.01 to 3.02) | <0.001 | 1.67 (1.32 to 2.10) | <0.001 | 1.62 (1.28 to 2.04) | <0.001 |
HFmrHF | 55 | 2313 | 2.38 | 2.74 (2.01 to 3.73) | <0.001 | 2.04 (1.40 to 2.99) | <0.001 | 2.03 (1.38 to 3.00) | <0.001 |
HFrHF | 88 | 2453 | 3.59 | 3.79 (2.92 to 4.93) | <0.001 | 2.61 (1.90 to 3.59) | <0.001 | 2.56 (1.85 to 3.56) | <0.001 |
Non-HF | 152 | 19 276 | 0.79 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
End-stage renal disease | |||||||||
HFpHF | 342 | 9408 | 3.64 | 2.91 (2.44 to 3.48) | <0.001 | 1.82 (1.48 to 2.23) | <0.001 | 1.86 (1.52 to 2.27) | <0.001 |
HFmrHF | 101 | 2262 | 4.47 | 4.07 (3.20 to 5.18) | <0.001 | 2.02 (1.49 to 2.75) | <0.001 | 2.23 (1.63 to 3.05) | <0.001 |
HFrHF | 130 | 2404 | 5.41 | 4.50 (3.60 to 5.62) | <0.001 | 2.62 (1.98 to 3.49) | <0.001 | 2.58 (1.94 to 3.44) | <0.001 |
Non-HF | 191 | 19 268 | 0.99 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
*Per 102 person-years.
†Adjusted for age, sex, haemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, spot urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, spot urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, malignancy, uses of calcium channel blockers, beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors, statins, oral hypoglycaemic agents and insulin.
CKD, chronic kidney disease; HF, heart failure; HFmrEF, heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction; HFpEF, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; IPTW, inverse probability of treatment weighting.