Performance for 6-month incident AF with optimal threshold determined by Youden Index
| Algorithm | ||||
| FIND-AF | MLR | CHA2DS2-VASc | C2HEST | |
| AUROC (95% CI) | 0.824 (0.814 to 0.834) | 0.765 (0.755 to 0.769) | 0.784 (0.773 to 0.794) | 0.757 (0.744 to 0.770) |
| Sensitivity (95% CI) | 0.781 (0.731 to 0.829) | 0.760 (0.653 to 0.814) | 0.847 (0.829 to 0.866) | 0.642 (0.619 to 0.791) |
| Specificity (95% CI) | 0.731 (0.693 to 0.771) | 0.679 (0.635 to 0.776) | 0.611 (0.608 to 0.612) | 0.790 (0.622 to 0.792) |
| PPV (%(95% CI)) | 2.5% (2.3 to 2.7) | 2.0% (1.8 to 2.6) | 2.2% (2.1 to 2.3) | 2.0% (1.5 to 2.2) |
| NPV (%(95% CI)) | 99.8% (99.8 to 99.8) | 99.7% (99.6 to 99.7) | 99.8% (99.8 to 99.8) | 99.7% (99.7 to 99.8) |
| Calibration slope* (95% CI) | 0.782 (0.743 to 0.824) | 0.698 (0.654 to 0.735) | 0.621 (0.589 to 0.652) | 0.608 (0.576 to 0.648) |
| Brier score | 0.069 | 0.097 | 0.093 | 0.102 |
*Calibration slope was derived from linear regression models by forcing the intercept through origin (0, 0).
AF, atrial fibrillation; AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic; CHA2DS2-VASc, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65–74, Sex category; C2HEST, Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point each), Hypertension, Elderly (age ≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism); FIND-AF, Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation; MLR, multivariable logistic regression; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.