Table 4

Accuracy of the prognostic model to predict urgent surgery or inhospital mortality among the three groups

Parameter (95% CI)
Derivation sampleInternal validation sampleExternal validation sample
Sensitivity (%)78 (71 to 85)73 (64 to 81)79 (72 to 86)
Specificity (%)49 (41 to 56)61 (52 to 69)57 (47 to 66)
Positive predictive value (%)51 (44 to 58)65 (57 to 73)68 (60 to 75)
Negative predictive value (%)76 (68 to 84)69 (60 to 78)70 (60 to 79)
Positive likelihood ratio1.53 (1.29 to 1.8)1.84 (1.4 to 2.3)1.82 (1.46 to 2.26)
Negative likelihood ratio0.44 (0.31 to 0.63)0.45 (0.33 to 0.62)0.37 (0.26 to 0.53)