Table 5

Expected outcome of patients with severe coronary artery disease and moderate aortic stenosis

		Initial CABG + AVR		Initial CABG + later AVR if necessary	Initial CABG + AVR is associated with:
		Initial CABG + AVR		Initial CABG + later AVR if necessary	Unnecessary AVR	Excess mortality
Total number of patients	100	100
1. At 30 days
(a) Mortality	8	3	100	5

2. At 3 years
(a) Mortality	18^5-151	9^5-150
(b) Late AVR in survivors	0	0	100	9

3. At 5 years
(a) Mortality	30^5-151	15^5-150
(b) Late AVR/reop AVR in survivors	0	15
(c) 15% 30 day mortality of late AVR	0	2
(d) Total deaths	30	17	85	13

4. At 10 years
(a) Mortality	60^5-151	30^5-150
(b) Late AVR/reop AVR in survivors	6	46^5-152
(c) 15% 30 day mortality of late AVR	1	7
(d) Total deaths	61	37	54	24

↵5-150 Mortality after CABG
↵5-151 Mortality after CABG+AVR
↵5-152 Events (death+AVR) at 10 years is 65%; for this analysis it was considered 65% of 70 survivors (that is, 46) would need late AVR which is most likely an overestimate.
Repeat revascularisation similar in both groups; its incidence and associated mortality
are not included.
Ten year complications after revascularisation and with prosthetic heart valves are not included.
Mortality at time of reoperation are included in the 5 and 10 year data. The assumed 15% mortality for reoperation is probably too high.