Table 5

Expected outcome of patients with severe coronary artery disease and moderate aortic stenosis

Initial CABG + AVRInitial CABG + later AVR if necessaryInitial CABG + AVR is associated with:
Unnecessary AVRExcess mortality
Total number of patients100100
1. At 30 days
 (a) Mortality831005
2. At 3 years
 (a) Mortality 185-151   95-150
 (b) Late AVR in survivors001009
3. At 5 years
 (a) Mortality 305-151 155-150
 (b) Late AVR/reop AVR in survivors015
 (c) 15% 30 day mortality of late AVR02
 (d) Total deaths30178513
4. At 10 years
 (a) Mortality 605-151  305-150
 (b) Late AVR/reop AVR in survivors6 465-152
 (c) 15% 30 day mortality of late AVR17
 (d) Total deaths61375424
  • 5-150 Mortality after CABG

  • 5-151 Mortality after CABG+AVR

  • 5-152 Events (death+AVR) at 10 years is 65%; for this analysis it was considered 65% of 70 survivors (that is, 46) would need late AVR which is most likely an overestimate.

  • Repeat revascularisation similar in both groups; its incidence and associated mortality

  • are not included.

  • Ten year complications after revascularisation and with prosthetic heart valves are not included.

  • Mortality at time of reoperation are included in the 5 and 10 year data. The assumed 15% mortality for reoperation is probably too high.