Table 3

Independent predictors of incident AF hospitalisation during 20 year follow up

Baseline characteristicNew AF hospitalisationMultivariate analysis
Yes (n=537)No (n=14 869)p ValueOR (95% CI)
Age (mean (SD) years)3-150 55 (6)54  (6)0.0282.72 (1.65 to 4.49)
Possible or definite angina3-151 194 (36%)4095 (28%)< 0.0011.37 (1.14 to 1.67)
Cardiomegaly68/519 (13%)1032/14212 (7%)0.0041.49 (1.14 to 1.98)
Systolic BP (mean (SD) mm Hg)3-152 155 (26)149 (24)< 0.00012.06 (1.48 to 2.88)
Body mass index (mean (SD) kg/m2)3-154 26.7 (4.5)25.7 (4.6)< 0.0091.43 (1.12 to 1.79)
  • 3-150 OR for each additional decade of age;

  • 3-151 As determined by Rose angina questionnaire;

  • 3-152 OR based on upper quartile of blood pressure (BP) distribution (⩾ 169 mmHg);

  • 3-154 OR and significance based on a model without cardiothoracic ratio data and on upper quartile of body mass index distribution (⩾ 28.1 kg/m2), otherwise non-significant.