Factors determining six month mortality: unadjusted estimates
| Factor | Category | Number | Deaths (%) | Odds ratio | 95% CI | p Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Excluding those with multiple valves infected; †abnormal erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) defined as >7 mm/h | ||||||
| (for those <40 years of age) and >20 mm/h (>40 years of age); ‡excluding those with negative culture; §test for trend. | ||||||
| Demographics | ||||||
| Age (years) | <65 | 137 | 35 (25.5) | 1 | 0.4 | |
| >65 | 50 | 16 (32.0) | 1.37 | 0.67 to 2.78 | ||
| Sex | Male | 124 | 30 (24.1) | 1 | 0.2 | |
| Female | 63 | 20 (31.7) | 1.457 | 0.74 to 2.85 | ||
| Duration of illness (days) | ≤5 | 38 | 13 (34.2) | 1 | 0.1* | |
| 6–21 | 45 | 8 (17.8) | 0.42 | 0.15 to 1.15 | ||
| 22–60 | 49 | 8 (16.3) | 0.38 | 0.14 to 1.03 | ||
| >60 | 27 | 5 (18.5) | 0.44 | 0.13 to 1.42 | ||
| Origin of patient | UCLH | 109 | 22 (20.1) | 1 | 0.03 | |
| Referred | 74 | 26 (35.1) | 2.14 | 1.10 to 4.17 | ||
| Clinical findings | ||||||
| Diabetes | No | 167 | 41 (24.6) | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Yes | 14 | 6 (42.9) | 2.31 | 0.76 to 7.05 | ||
| Predisposition | No | 23 | 11 (47.8) | 1 | 0.02 | |
| Yes | 164 | 39 (23.8) | 0.34 | 0.14 to 0.83 | ||
| Body mass index | Underweight | 37 | 6 (16.2) | 1 | 0.9 | |
| Healthy | 69 | 12 (17.4) | 1.09 | 0.37 to 3.18 | ||
| Overweight | 13 | 3 (23.1) | 1.55 | 0.33 to 7.36 | ||
| Haematological findings | ||||||
| Creatinine | <133 μmol/l | 126 | 28 (22.2) | 1 | 0.02 | |
| ≥133 μmol/l | 51 | 20 (39.2) | 2.26 | 1.12 to 4.56 | ||
| Albumin | ≥30 g/l | 121 | 22 (18.2) | 1 | 0.0007 | |
| <30 g/l | 53 | 23 (43.3) | 3.45 | 1.69 to 7.04 | ||
| WCC | 3 × 109–11 × 109/l | 87 | 10 (11.5) | 1 | <0.0001 | |
| <3 × 109 or >11 × 109/l | 85 | 35 (41.2) | 5.39 | 2.45 to 11.85 | ||
| CRP | <10 mg/l | 10 | 4 (40.0) | 1 | 0.2 | |
| ≥10 mg/l | 108 | 23 (21.3) | 0.41 | 0.11 to 1.56 | ||
| ESR† | Normal | 15 | 6 (40.0) | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Abnormal | 117 | 24 (20.5) | 0.39 | 0.13 to 1.20 | ||
| ECG and echocardiographic findings | ||||||
| Heart rhythm | Normal | 98 | 16 (16.3) | 1 | 0.005 | |
| Abnormal | 74 | 26 (35.1) | 2.78 | 1.36 to 5.70 | ||
| Valve type | Native | 129 | 30 (23.0) | 1 | 0.07 | |
| Prosthetic | 55 | 20 (36.0) | 1.88 | 0.95 to 3.74 | ||
| Visible vegetation | No | 71 | 13 (18.3) | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Yes | 116 | 37 (31.9) | 2.09 | 1.02 to 4.28 | ||
| Left ventricular function | Other | 137 | 34 (24.8) | 1 | 0.70 | |
| Poor | 17 | 5 (29.4) | 1.26 | 0.41 to 3.84 | ||
| Valve regurgitation | Other | 110 | 20 (18.1) | 1 | 0.008 | |
| Severe | 59 | 22 (37.2) | 2.67 | 1.30 to 5.47 | ||
| Embolic event | No | 150 | 38 (25.3) | 1 | 0.5 | |
| Yes | 32 | 10 (31.2) | 0.74 | 0.32 to 1.71 | ||
| Infected valve‡ | Aortic | 77 | 20 (26.0) | 1 | 0.9 | |
| Mitral | 69 | 16 (23.2) | 0.86 | 0.40 to 1.83 | ||
| Tricuspid | 15 | 4 (26.7) | 1.04 | 0.30 to 3.63 | ||
| Microbiological findings | ||||||
| Culture | Negative | 26 | 6 (23.1) | 1 | 0.7 | |
| Positive | 161 | 44 (27.3) | 1.25 | 0.47 to 3.32 | ||
| Staphylococcus aureus§ | No | 123 | 31 (25.2) | 1 | 0.3 | |
| Yes | 38 | 13 (34.2) | 1.54 | 0.71 to 3.38 | ||
| Duke criteria | Other | 79 | 15 (19.0) | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Two major | 108 | 35 (32.4) | 2.05 | 1.03 to 4.09 | ||
| Surgery | No | 89 | 18 (20.2) | 1 | 0.05 | |
| Yes | 97 | 32 (33.0) | 1.94 | 0.99 to 3.79 | ||