Clinical study: heart failure
Predictive value of systolic and diastolic function for incident congestive heart failure in the elderly: The Cardiovascular Health Study

Presented in part at the 69th Annual Scientific Sessions of the American Heart Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, November 1996.
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Abstract

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess the ability of echocardiographic indices of systolic and diastolic function to predict incident congestive heart failure (CHF).

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive indices of subclinical systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction that can be used to identify patients in a transition phase between normal cardiac function and clinical CHF would be valuable. Though midwall shortening and Doppler mitral inflow patterns are seemingly well suited to predict subsequent CHF, the predictive value of these indices has not been investigated.

METHODS

We studied 2,671 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study who were free of coronary heart disease, CHF or atrial fibrillation. Clinical and quantitative echocardiographic data were obtained in all participants.

RESULTS

At a mean follow-up of 5.2 years (range 0 to 6 years), 170 participants (6.4% of the cohort) developed CHF. Although 96% of these participants had normal or borderline ejection fraction (EF) at baseline, only 57% had normal or borderline EF at the time of hospitalization. In multivariate modeling, fractional shortening at the endocardium (relative risk [RR] 1.85 per 10-unit decrease, confidence interval [CI] 1.27 to 2.39), fractional shortening at the midwall (RR 1.29 per five-unit decrease, 95% CI 1.11–1.51) and peak Doppler peak E (RR 1.15 for each 0.1 M/s increment; CI 1.02 to 1.21) independently predicted incident CHF. Both high and low Doppler E/A ratios were predictive of incident CHF.

CONCLUSIONS

Roughly half the occurrences of CHF in this population are associated with normal or borderline EF. Echocardiographic findings suggestive of subclinical contractile dysfunction and diastolic filling abnormalities are both predictive of subsequent CHF. The standard (FSendo) and refined (FSmw) parameters of systolic function performed similarly in this regard, though subjects with left ventricular hypertrophy and depressed FSmw are at particularly high risk for subsequent CHF.

Abbreviations

CHD
coronary heart disease
CHF
congestive heart failure
CHS
Cardiovascular Health Study
CI
confidence intervals
EF
ejection fraction
FSendo
fractional shortening measured at the endocardium
FSmw
fractional shortening measured at the midwall
LV
left ventricular
MI
myocardial infarction
RR
relative risk
RWT
relative wall thickness

Cited by (0)

This study was supported by contracts N01-HC-85079-85086 and N01-HC-15103 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.