Background: Current triglyceride levels might be only a weak predictor of risk for coronary heart disease (CHD).
Objective: To assess the association between changes over time in fasting triglyceride levels and CHD risk in young adults.
Design: Follow-up study over 5.5 years after 2 measurements of fasting triglycerides 5 years apart.
Setting: The Staff Periodic Examination Center of the Israel Defense Forces, Zrifin, Israel.
Patients: 13,953 apparently healthy, untreated, young men (age 26 to 45 years) with triglyceride levels less than 3.39 mmol/L (<300 mg/dL).
Measurements: Two triglyceride measurements (at enrollment [time 1] and 5 years later [time 2]), lifestyle variables, and incident cases of angiography-proven CHD.
Results: Within 5.5 years, 158 new cases of CHD were identified. The multivariate model was adjusted for age; family history; fasting glucose; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; blood pressure; body mass index; and changes between time 1 and time 2 in body mass index, physical activity, smoking status, and habit of eating breakfast. Investigators categorized triglyceride levels according to low, intermediate, and high tertiles (as measured at time 1 and time 2 [expressed as tertile at time 1/tertile at time 2]). The risk for CHD in men with high-tertile triglyceride levels at time 1 changed depending on the tertile at time 2 (hazard ratios, 8.23 [95% CI, 2.50 to 27.13] for high/high, 6.84 [CI, 1.95 to 23.98] for high/intermediate, and 4.90 [CI, 1.01 to 24.55] for high/low, compared with the stable low/low group). The risk for CHD in men with low-tertile levels at time 1 also changed depending on the tertile at time 2 (hazard ratios, 3.81 [CI, 0.96 to 15.31] for low/intermediate and 6.76 [CI, 1.34 to 33.92] for low/high, compared with the stable low/low group).
Limitations: Participants were healthy and had a low incidence rate of CHD. The study was observational.
Conclusions: Two triglyceride measurements obtained 5 years apart may assist in assessing CHD risk in young men. A decrease in initially elevated triglyceride levels is associated with a decrease in CHD risk compared with stable high triglyceride levels. However, this risk remains higher than in those with persistently low triglyceride levels.