Usefulness of natriuretic Peptide levels to predict mortality in adults with congenital heart disease

Neurohormonal activation is prevalent in adults with congenital heart disease, but its relation to outcome remains unknown. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) were measured prospectively in 49 patients with adult congenital heart disease, who were followed up for a median of 7.9 years (interquartile range 7.7 to 8.2). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine the relation of BNP and ANP concentrations to all-cause mortality. The mean age at baseline was 33.9 +/- 11.3 years, and 46.9% of patients were men. Most patients (77.5%) were symptomatic (20.4% had New York Heart Association class III), 10 (20.4%) were cyanotic, and 28 (57.1%) had systemic ventricular dysfunction (moderate or severe in 18.4%). The median concentration of BNP was 52.7 pg/ml (interquartile range 39.1 to 115.4) and of ANP was 47.4 pg/ml (interquartile range 19.7 to 112.8). Of the 49 patients, 11 (22.4%) died during the follow-up period. Both BNP and ANP were strong predictors of mortality (hazard ratio per 100-pg/ml increase 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.38 to 2.34, p <0.0001; and hazard ratio per 100-pg/ml increase 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.32, p <0.0001, respectively). A BNP value >78 pg/ml predicted death with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 76.3% (area under the curve 0.91, p = 0.0001). An ANP value of >146 pg/ml predicted death with a sensitivity of 72.7% and specificity 94.7% (area under the curve 0.89, p = 0.0001). No patients with a BNP level <78 pg/ml died during the follow-up period. In conclusion, the BNP and ANP levels strongly predicted death in symptomatic ambulatory patients with adult congenital heart disease during mid-term follow-up and could be used as a simple clinical marker for risk stratification in this population.