Background: While normal exercise myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) is a robust predictor of low short-term clinical risk, there is increasing interest in ascertaining how clinical factors influence long-term risk following SPECT-MPI.
Methods: We evaluated the predictors of outcome from clinical data obtained at the time of testing in 12,232 patients with normal exercise SPECT-MPI studies. All-cause mortality (ACM) was assessed at a mean of 11.2 ± 4.5 years using the Social Security Death Index.
Results: The ACM rate was 0.8%/year, but varied markedly according to the presence of CAD risk factors. Hypertension, smoking, diabetes, exercise capacity, dyspnea, obesity, higher resting heart rate, an abnormal ECG, LVH, atrial fibrillation, and LVEF < 45% were all predictors of increased mortality. Risk factors were synergistic in predicting mortality: annualized age and gender-adjusted ACM rates ranged from only 0.2%/year among patients exercising for >9 minutes having none of three significant risk factors (among hypertension, diabetes, and smoking) to 1.6%/year among patients exercising <6 minutes and having ≥ 2 of these three risk factors. The age and gender-adjusted hazard ratio for mortality was increased by 7.3 (95% confidence interval 5.5-9.7) in the latter patients compared to those patients who exercised >9 minutes and had no significant risk factors (P < .001).
Conclusions: Long-term mortality risk varies markedly in accordance with baseline CAD risk factors and functional capacity among patients with normal exercise SPECT-MPI studies. Further study is indicated to determine whether the prospective characterization of both short-term and long-term risks following the performance of stress SPECT-MPI leads to improved clinical management.